Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and often constrained by ethical or practical limitations, motivating the need for causal methods able to draw conclusions from observational data. While such data is collected at ever larger scale, making its use for causal inference is often hindered by the fact that not all variables affecting treatment allocation and the outcome are observed - an issue known as unobserved confounding. In this paper, we introduce a new study design called confounder detection via treatment intent. The idea is to query a human expert who makes treatment decisions, and ask them to compare pairs of units proposed by a principled matching strategy, with the goal of eliciting unobserved variables that explain why treatment decisions differ. We provide a theoretical basis for such a procedure, ascertaining conditions under which such a study design may elicit unobserved confounders. Building on this newly established foundations, we study treatment effects of interventions in the intensive care unit (ICU). First, we show empirical evidence strongly indicating that electronic health records (EHRs) collected in ICUs are subject to unobserved confounding. By using clinical text notes as a proxy for physicians' knowledge and leveraging natural language processing, we provide a proof of concept for our methodology in a semi-synthetic environment with a known ground truth.

We next discuss two lines of related literature.

We next discuss two lines of related literature.

We introduce a principal stratification-based method, focusing on the always-survivor value function. We derive a semiparametrically efficient, multiply robust estimator for multi-stage DTRs, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency. Empirical validation and an application to electronic health records showcase its utility for personalized treatment optimization.

Background. Dengue outbreaks are a major public health issue, with Brazil reporting 71% of global cases in 2024. Purpose. This study aims to describe the profile of severe dengue patients admitted to Brazilian Intensive Care units (ICUs) (2012-2024), assess trends over time, describe new onset complications while in ICU and determine the risk factors at admission to develop complications during ICU stay. Methods. We performed a prospective study of dengue patients from 253 ICUs across 56 hospitals. We used descriptive statistics to describe the dengue ICU population, logistic regression to identify risk factors for complications during the ICU stay, and a machine learning framework to predict the risk of evolving to complications. Visualisations were generated using ISARIC VERTEX. Results. Of 11,047 admissions, 1,117 admissions (10.1%) evolved to complications, including non-invasive (437 admissions) and invasive ventilation (166), vasopressor (364), blood transfusion (353) and renal replacement therapy (103). Age>80 (OR: 3.10, 95% CI: 2.02-4.92), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.94, 2.22-3.89), liver cirrhosis (OR: 3.65, 1.82-7.04), low platelets (<50,000 cells/mm3; OR: OR: 2.25, 1.89-2.68), and high leukocytes (>7,000 cells/mm3; OR: 2.47, 2.02-3.03) were significant risk factors for complications. A machine learning tool for predicting complications was proposed, showing accurate discrimination and calibration. Conclusion. We described a large cohort of dengue patients admitted to ICUs and identified key risk factors for severe dengue complications, such as advanced age, presence of comorbidities, higher level of leukocytes and lower level of platelets. The proposed prediction tool can be used for early identification and targeted interventions to improve outcomes in dengue-endemic regions.

Standardised tests using short answer questions (SAQs) are common in postgraduate education. Large language models (LLMs) simulate conversational language and interpret unstructured free-text responses in ways aligning with applying SAQ grading rubrics, making them attractive for automated grading. We evaluated ChatGPT 4o to grade SAQs in a postgraduate medical setting using data from 215 students (557 short-answer responses) enrolled in an online course on mechanical ventilation (2020--2024). Deidentified responses to three case-based scenarios were presented to ChatGPT with a standardised grading prompt and rubric. Outputs were analysed using mixed-effects modelling, variance component analysis, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), Cohen's kappa, Kendall's W, and Bland--Altman statistics. ChatGPT awarded systematically lower marks than human graders with a mean difference (bias) of -1.34 on a 10-point scale. ICC values indicated poor individual-level agreement (ICC1 = 0.086), and Cohen's kappa (-0.0786) suggested no meaningful agreement. Variance component analysis showed minimal variability among the five ChatGPT sessions (G-value = 0.87), indicating internal consistency but divergence from the human grader. The poorest agreement was observed for evaluative and analytic items, whereas checklist and prescriptive rubric items had less disagreement. We caution against the use of LLMs in grading postgraduate coursework. Over 60% of ChatGPT-assigned grades differed from human grades by more than acceptable boundaries for high-stakes assessments.

Patient-ventilator asynchrony (PVA) is a common and critical issue during mechanical ventilation, affecting up to 85% of patients. PVA can result in clinical complications such as discomfort, sleep disruption, and potentially more severe conditions like ventilator-induced lung injury and diaphragm dysfunction. Traditional PVA management, which relies on manual adjustments by healthcare providers, is often inadequate due to delays and errors. While various computational methods, including rule-based, statistical, and deep learning approaches, have been developed to detect PVA events, they face challenges related to dataset imbalances and lack of interpretability. In this work, we propose a shapelet-based approach SHIP for PVA detection, utilizing shapelets -- discriminative subsequences in time-series data -- to enhance detection accuracy and interpretability. Our method addresses dataset imbalances through shapelet-based data augmentation and constructs a shapelet pool to transform the dataset for more effective classification. The combined shapelet and statistical features are then used in a classifier to identify PVA events. Experimental results on medical datasets show that SHIP significantly improves PVA detection while providing interpretable insights into model decisions.

Background: Circadian desynchrony characterized by the misalignment between an individual's internal biological rhythms and external environmental cues, significantly affects various physiological processes and health outcomes. Quantifying circadian desynchrony often requires prolonged and frequent monitoring, and currently, an easy tool for this purpose is missing. Additionally, its association with the incidence of delirium has not been clearly explored. Methods: A prospective observational study was carried out in intensive care units (ICU) of a tertiary hospital. Circadian transcriptomics of blood monocytes from 86 individuals were collected on two consecutive days, although a second sample could not be obtained from all participants. Using two public datasets comprised of healthy volunteers, we replicated a model for determining internal circadian time. We developed an approach to quantify circadian desynchrony by comparing internal circadian time and external blood collection time. We applied the model and quantified circadian desynchrony index among ICU patients, and investigated its association with the incidence of delirium. Results: The replicated model for determining internal circadian time achieved comparable high accuracy. The quantified circadian desynchrony index was significantly higher among critically ill ICU patients compared to healthy subjects, with values of 10.03 hours vs 2.50-2.95 hours (p < 0.001). Most ICU patients had a circadian desynchrony index greater than 9 hours. Additionally, the index was lower in patients whose blood samples were drawn after 3pm, with values of 5.00 hours compared to 10.01-10.90 hours in other groups (p < 0.001)...

The issue of failed weaning is a critical concern in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting. This scenario occurs when a patient experiences difficulty maintaining spontaneous breathing and ensuring a patent airway within the first 48 hours after the withdrawal of mechanical ventilation. Approximately 20 of ICU patients experience this phenomenon, which has severe repercussions on their health. It also has a substantial impact on clinical evolution and mortality, which can increase by 25 to 50. To address this issue, we propose a medical support system that uses a convolutional neural network (CNN) to assess a patients suitability for disconnection from a mechanical ventilator after a spontaneous breathing test (SBT). During SBT, respiratory flow and electrocardiographic activity were recorded and after processed using time-frequency analysis (TFA) techniques. Two CNN architectures were evaluated in this study: one based on ResNet50, with parameters tuned using a Bayesian optimization algorithm, and another CNN designed from scratch, with its structure also adapted using a Bayesian optimization algorithm. The WEANDB database was used to train and evaluate both models. The results showed remarkable performance, with an average accuracy 98 when using CNN from scratch. This model has significant implications for the ICU because it provides a reliable tool to enhance patient care by assisting clinicians in making timely and accurate decisions regarding weaning. This can potentially reduce the adverse outcomes associated with failed weaning events.

Unmasking Societal Biases in Respiratory Support for ICU Patients through Social Determinants of Health Mira Moukheiber 1, Lama Moukheiber 1, Dana Moukheiber 1 and Hyung-Chul Lee 2, 1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2 Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine vital@snu.ac.kr Abstract In critical care settings, where precise and timely interventions are crucial for health outcomes, evaluating disparities in patient outcomes is important. Current approaches often fall short in comprehensively understanding and evaluating the impact of respiratory support interventions on individuals affected by social determinants of health. Attributes such as gender, race, and age are commonly assessed and essential, but provide only a partial view of the complexities faced by diverse populations. In this study, we focus on two clinically motivated tasks: prolonged mechanical ventilation and successful weaning. We also perform fairness audits on the models' predictions across demographic groups and social determinants of health to better understand the health inequities in respiratory interventions in the intensive care unit. We also release a temporal benchmark dataset, verified by clinical experts, to enable benchmarking of clinical respiratory intervention tasks. 1 Introduction Critically-ill patients often find themselves in the intensive care unit (ICU) seeking specialized support for respiratory distress [ Doyle et al., 1995; Ware and Matthay, 2000 ] . Despite advances in supportive treatments, the in-hospital mortality rate remains 40% for conditions such as acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome [ Rubenfeld et al., 2005; Sweatt and Levitt, 2014 ] .